CO2 emissions: a world of difference

Taking all the G20 economies together - including all the members of the African Union and the European Union - CO2e emissions per head are set to show a modest rise over the next quarter century, if the trend follows that since the Paris Accord of 2015. That could be too pessimistic, of course. More strenuous action could be taken.

The advanced economies within the G20 group (including all EU countries) show a downward trend in emissions per head. And two economies - the UK and Germany - are on track for net zero in 2050 if the trend since 2015 is followed. Indeed the UK could get there earlier than that: 2045 on our calculations.

If that analysis points to the emerging economies as the source of the problem, it is only partly true. The G20 emerging economies include some economies with particularly low levels of emissions. The African Union, India and Brazil are noteworthy in this respect.

In that context, the focus of tackling climate change could fruitful be preventing those economies emitting more as their prosperity rises.