A key issue - probably the key issues - across all the G20 economies is the sustainability of government finances. Commentary in the UK surrounds this issue, ahead of the first budget by the new Chancellor of the Exchequer on 28 October 20206. It has been a key issue in France for several years, Historically, emerging economies have proved vulnerable once their debt positions have risen too far.
The current position, as far as we see it, is summarised in the table below. Of the developed G20 economies only has a sustainable debt position on the basis of the two criteria assessed here. Three emerging G20 economies - Argentina, India and the African Union in aggregate - have sustainable positions.
Is G20 government debt sustainable? | ||||
| Debt/GDP ratio in 2026 | Is the 2026 debt level below 90% of GDP? | Is the debt ratio stable or falling over the next 5 years? | Overall, is debt sustainable? |
AUSTRALIA | 51% | YES | YES | YES |
CANADA | 111% | NO | YES | NO |
FRANCE | 118% | NO | NO | NO |
GERMANY | 65% | YES | NO | NO |
ITALY | 138% | NO | YES | NO |
JAPAN | 204% | NO | YES | NO |
KOREA | 54% | YES | NO | NO |
UNITED KINGDOM | 104% | NO | YES | NO |
UNITED STATES | 126% | NO | NO | NO |
EURO AREA | 88% | YES | NO | NO |
ARGENTINA | 70% | YES | YES | YES |
BRAZIL | 97% | NO | NO | NO |
CHINA | 107% | NO | NO | NO |
INDIA | 83% | YES | YES | YES |
INDONESIA | 41% | YES | NO | NO |
MEXICO | 63% | YES | NO | NO |
RUSSIAN FEDERATION | 19% | YES | NO | NO |
SAUDI ARABIA | 32% | YES | NO | NO |
SOUTH AFRICA | 79% | YES | NO | NO |
TURKEY | 26% | YES | NO | NO |
AFRICAN UNION | 55% | YES | YES | YES |
Source: IMF Fiscal Sustainability Report and Tier Co. calculations. 8 Sep 2026. | ||||